MIPIM: Has property's party started again?

It'll be one last blast at the bars and cafes in Cannes tonight.

While there'll be some brave souls hanging round for meetings on Friday morning, MIPIM 2014 is more or less over now.

It's been an at times frenetic event, dominated by a sense that there's a lot of investment money chasing too few opportunities.

Adding to the vague sense of desperation, construction firms have been telling anyone who'll listen that they'll run out of brickies and sparks to do all this development within 18 months.

You have to take the hyper atmosphere of MIPIM with a huge pinch of salt. Even so, it's pretty obvious that a new cycle is getting into gear on a serious level. Money is waiting for occupiers to be brave, and planners will need to act fast when proposals land.

Nottingham has almost certainly lined up some deals here, with some sites attracting a number of potential development partners. It's base, La Potiniere in Square Merimee, has had people walking through the door looking for serious conversations. Some won't go anywhere, but both political leader Jon Collins and chief executive Ian Curryer are convinced they are coming away with concrete options.

La Potiniere has been an effective base. Directly opposite the Palais des Festivals, it makes a stand look almost redundant (and don't bother ringing - I'm told Team Nottingham has already snaffled it for next year).

The council has to get results this time round. In the last cycle the CGIs ran well ahead of demand and two key zones, Eastside and Waterside, were left high and dry. Judging by the number of bidders who queued up with millions in their pockets to try to swipe Kevin Riley's troubled Riverside apartments, the demand has already arrived.

Today's announcement that the city council will share the risk with  Peel on 50,000 sq ft of Grade A space near the city's railway station tells you that some regional markets still need a jump-start. Whether the council will actually end up occupying the space depends on whether economic progress is sustained.

But there's a sense now that stalled sites in Nottingham and beyond are about to burst back to life. That or it was a good party...

Thinking big at MIPIM

They don't do things by halves in Russia. Power and presence is everything, and a certain swagger is written all over the presence of Rusia's regions and its capital city, Moscow, at MIPIM.

The Russian regions have their own pavilion, full of bright displays and gleaming models of all sorts of weird and wonderful schemes.

Moscow? Well, Moscow had two things: security on the doors and a model of the city centre which was twice the size of the entire Nottingham and Derby stand.

Directly opposite the regions' pavilion was an old car bearing the Bond movie title 'From Russia With Love'.

As the security on the door demonstrated,that sentiment may not be universally reflected at the moment and certainly not on the Kiev stand inside the main exhibition centre.

And the problem for Russia is that a lot of the considerable sums some of its people have raked in gets invested in the West.

There are some impressive sites in the main exhibition halls too, with quite a few UK cities throwing some serious money at their presence (and not just Birmingham and Manchester).

This is an 'upwards cycle' MIPIM where the professionals and the places they advise know there is some serious investment wodge out there - Colliers estimated this morning that another 60 billion euros of pension and insurance fund money will try to find a home this year.

Sounds big, but it's just under a third more than the total value of UK property investment last year.

UK cities are working hard to get some of this money coming in their direction and as I blogged yesterday they need to move reasonably fast. Competition means investors can be choosy, and the construction industry they need to get spades in the ground is short of capacity to make things happen - one building firm I spoke to here has got more than two-thirds of its 2015 budget in the bag already.

Nottingham has some big, logical oppportunities it is marketing at MIPIM. it needs to get Bob theBuilder  signed up to make them happen.

MIPIM 2014: No presence, no deals

MIPIM 2014 starts today, Tuesday 11 March 2014.

And if you're an ambitious city or town all you need to know is this: if you're not already here, forget this economic cycle.

Why? As far as property investment is concerned, the downturn is over. The issue now is where to invest for the upturn, which is a question of where are the best opportunities to make money and which local authorities can best help us deliver that?

That much was obvious from an afternoon in Cafe Roma, the bistro directly outside the Palais des Festivals in Cannes which is a bellwether for where the market's at when MIPIM is on. MIPIM starts on Tuesday, but on Monday Cafe Roma was absolutely rammed with people talking business.

When I went for an illicit wander round the half-finished stands yesterday it was obvious that the big cities have already realised they need to make a big noise at MIPIM 2014. Manchester and Birmingham have thrown six-figure sums at their presence.

Nottingham looks likely to punch above its weight as one of the smaller Core Cities. It's base, a bistro called La Potiniere, is directly opposite the Palais des Festivals in eye sight of anyone going in. It's programme is different enough to attract attention.

The proof of the pudding will come in the next couple of years when we find out if big developers have taken a bite of the city's big opportunities.

This is a big week for Cafe Roma and La Potiniere. And it's a massive one for Nottinghsm.

MIPIM 2014

So, it's MIPIM week again.

The event doesn't officially kick off until Tuesday but 'advance' parties are already here sweating their way through a warm Sunday to prepare stands, cafes, restaurants, meeting rooms and apartments where countries, regions, cities and even some towns from all over Europe will try to persuade investors and developers to come and do the bricks and mortar thing.

Nottingham is among them, and while the banner is out above its headquarters (a small, but very well-placed cafe) it doesn't formally launch its programme until Tuesday morning with a day-long programme which takes in national media, private meetings, formal events and a dinner for invited guests.

That's just day one.

Even though day one is two days hence, I've already seen several people from city businesses trying to get meetings fixed up.

That is what MIPIM is really about. It's the largest gathering of the most influential investors, developers and property and construction professionals in Europe and the object is to simply get in front of them and persuade them yours is the place where they can best turn a profit.

Some of these people are extremely wealthy - the high net worth individuals of the world, and they'll be flying in by private jet (I was on a rammed easyjet flight, thanks). Some of them are professionals and directors from comparatvely small architecture, building engineering, consultancy and development businesses who need to make this event pay its way because they foot their own bills.

While they are weary of the booze-and-bling image associated with a conference next to the Med, they take the hgh-life accusations with a pinch of salt. The business opportunities here are too good to pass up.

It's harder for councillors and council officials, who are spending public money being here. Their presence is usually fleeting, on a budget and the fear of being seen within 50 feet of a Bentley or a boat haunts every photo opportunity.

In Nottingham's case, they've reached the conclusion that envious mudslinging is something they'll have to live with. The city's just had a fortune spend on infrastructure, some serious money is about to be spent on its two main shopping centres, and it has ambitions to get sites which stalled when the credit crunch hit back up and running.

The property industry is now back at the start of an investment cycle, and the consensus is that a wall of foreign money has made it too expensive for UK-based property investors to make money in London.

Hence the regions are now trying hard to persuade these investors - be they professional property investors or pension funds - that provincial cities are the next best bet.

Plenty of other UK towns and cities are here. For Nottingham - with an infrastructre some choked cities would die for - giving MIPIM a miss makes no sense.

The Man Who Got Things Done

There are a lot of people who knew Jim Taylor better than me. There are a lot of people who have paid tribute more eloquently than I can. I was first introduced to JT by Richard Tresidder, whose own appreciation in the Nottingham Post neatly summed up his talent, his determination and his refusal to allow a long-term health problem to get in the way of either driving Nottingham forwards or making mirth.

Richard Williams, in The Guardian, rightly brought the passing of a great provincial planner to national attention, while Tim Garratt shared those inimitable 'Jim-isms' in his blog.

Today we said goodbye to Jim. What such a notoriously publicity-shy character would have made of a St Mary's Church packed to the rafters, of poignant memories, warm tributes and gales of laughter, I don't know.

The humour I'm sure he would have appreciated. The formality would have been something to be mercilessly sent up.

He did that to me on more than one occasion. I picked his brain on many stories about regeneration and economic development, and liked to think the odd one might have contained a few grains of insight. JT had a way of letting you know when they didnt. On the morning one of my more epic efforts was published - an epic whch quoted a particular individual at length - the phone rang. The caller didn't say who he was, but the nature of the charming put-down needed no introduction. "I see you've been drinking deeply from the pipette of his wisdom again," he chuckled.

The gentle de-construction which followed made it clear that this particular epic had all the substance of tomorrow's chip-paper.

Jim could, of course, see the bigger picture in a way that a mere hack couldn't. Along with numerous other victims, he would summon me for coffee and begin with something along the lines of "I want to discuss something - and I can see the headlines now". At that point, I'd realise I was in for several weeks of toil at the hands of a man far more exact and demanding than any editor I've come across.

Jim's energy (hinted at by Eddie Neale in a warm eulogy) could be both demanding and infectious. He was intolerant of people who were either uncommitted or in it for something other than the greater good.

Meeting his standards was not easy (and will be harder still with his passing). It required you to set aside sectional interest and see that bigger picture. Feathers would be ruffled, risks would be taken. And things would be achieved.

The tram (his personal train set, as Geoff Williams, from the Sneinton 'Academy' put it) should shield the city from some of the long-term costs of traffic congestion. The Market Square is a provincial jewel. The rejuvenation of the Forest Recreation Ground righted a wrong.

The work that Jim put into Nottingham Ambassadors and - in particular - the Invest in Nottingham Club - should not be under-estimated, either. In a city where mutual suspicion between public sector and private sector has got in the way of progress, the Club has provided some crucial economic development glue at a critical time.

Jim's abiliy to empathise with other people's problems was, perhaps, a mirror of his own sensitivities. But his unvarnished commitment to doing right by Nottingham meant he was entitled to be sensitive. You cannot argue with his achievements, and nor should you - like him, they are there to be celebrated.

Nottingham is a better place because of Jim Taylor. Lives have been enriched by him, as Eddie Neale said. Pomposity has been punctured, mischief has been made, riotous fun has been had. And progress has been made.

Summing Jim up in one sentence is not easy. As his sons put it at the end of today's celebration: "He was the man who got things done."

Has the rug really been pulled from under Mark Carney?

The heated debate about whether or not Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has engaged in a humiliating climbdown over his forward guidance on interest rates is destined to sink beneath the waves of flooding news.

Which is probably not a bad thing.

The debate is an important one, but was being turned into an egotistical contest about who knew most about UK monetary policy: a Canadian bank governor or City scribblers.

The scribblers appear to have decided long ago that Carney was an outsider who'd blundered. After all, what on earth was this suspiciously slick Canadian doing making his first major announcement about policy in Nottingham of all places?

This was where, last August, he said the Bank wouldn't even consider putting up interest rates until the unemployment rate fell to 7%.

This was breaking new ground on two fronts. First, it meant the Bank was no longer tied by inflation – it had another factor to consider. Second, Mr Carney was a whole lot more open about what he meant (finding meaning in an interview with Mervyn King, his predecessor, was like searching for a needle in a haystack).

Mr Carney's view was that the Bank needed to lose its lofty air, get out into the economy and explain to worried consumers and uncertain businesses that it wasn't going to do anything which would torpedo a fragile recovery they would depend on for jobs, wages and revenue.

If you look back, you'll see that he dropped plenty of hints to suggest that seven per cent was far from an automatic threshold. It was, he said in an interview with the Nottingham Post, "only a staging post" and "No one should assume that it is a trigger for raising rates".

He also made another important point, one with which few would disagree: that the Bank's decision on interest rates would not be dominated by the strength of the economy in London and the South East, which is on a different level to the rest of the country.

Remember his comment: "Nottingham is the bellwether of the broader British economy. It is not over-weighted with finance, we get enough of that perspective in London."

This is one the City scribblers would do well to dwell on. Mr Carney may have been caught out by the speed with which the unemployment rate has plunged close to a 7% national average. But it remains significantly above that level in some regions, the recovery that is clearly motoring ahead in the South East remains patchy elsewhere.

Similarly, the debts that lie underneath many households (and some businesses)haven't miraculously disappeared.

Confidence is coming back, for sure, and the Bank's new GDP growth forecast for this year – north of 3% - signals real momentum.

But don't get lost in debates about whether the precise nature of Mr Carney's forward guidance was right or wrong.

Economists are now expecting the first rate rise to take place in Spring 2015, with the base rate having risen to a forecast 2% by 2017.

Whatever technical changes have taken place, Mark Carney's most telling comment in Nottingham was – and remains – this: "As you see things picking up, don't worry that the rug is going to be pulled out from under you too soon."

Is the number up for Northern cities?

A FEW weeks ago The Economist magazine took the brave step of suggesting that some northern towns and cities were in such dire straits we should abandon them and bus residents elsewhere.

Well, it didn't put it quite like that, but its analysis of the way places like Middlesbrough, Burnley, Hartlepool and Hull absorbed huge sums of public money without their economies making progress was put forward as a reason for switching the money to more promising locations and providing transport links to their jobs.

The Economist's article was a clinical analysis of some unpleasant facts: unemployment rates in these towns are double the national average, young people are draining away and their high streets are "thick with betting shops and payday lenders, if they are not empty."

In other words, their economies are no longer working in a sustainable way.

It pointed out that fortunes have been lavished on regenerating them when the economy was booming, often on "grand projects" which could not survive without life support from the taxpayer. That life support has gone, and The Economist's conclusion was that Government money should focus on helping people rather than propping up places.

How? "That means helping them to commute or move to places where there are jobs – and giving them the skills to get those jobs."

There were some predictable outpourings of rage. Some of it was genuine pride in cultural identity, some of it was political bluster from people who probably have a few questions to answer (the most serious implication of The Economist's analysis was that giving businesses and people incentives to come and set up in these towns is propping up local politics, not local economics, and diverting business from places where it might be more successful).

Hull's response was cleverer than that. And it'll interest Nottingham.

Academics from the city's university pointed out that the 'facts' about Hull that The Economist's analysis was based on weren't accurate because they were based on a political boundary not economic reality. In other words, it had missed Hull's affluent suburbs.

Sound familiar? Nottingham has struggled in numerous rankings for exactly the same reason. In business, we know the city as capital of the East Midlands, one of England's eight core cities and a pretty attractive location which mixes big business, entrepreneurial vitality, academia of international standing, an attractive lifestyle and some beautiful places to live.

Yet the official statistics about poverty, health and education make for a miserable roll-call of below average readings. Why? Once again, because the data is taken from a tightly-drawn inner city political boundary – not the functioning social and economic entity that includes the likes of West Bridgford, Wollaton, Arnold and Mapperley.

The traditional response is that these local government boundaries should therefore be changed. This raises all sorts of political issues (not least self-interest) and seems unlikely to happen anytime soon.

In any case, there's a cheaper and quicker way of doing it – simply adopt the methodology used in the University of Hull's (miserably-titled) "index of multiple deprivation". It looks at all the relevant measures in a series of concentric circles from the inside of a city to the outside, reflecting the way a city functions rather than its politics.

As The Economist points out, cities and their conurbations don't always form neat circles so the index isn't infallible. Nor should such measures be used to suggest that things are OK on average when festering problems remain unsolved. 'Inner' Nottingham's education issues are serious and need serious attention.

But they need to be seen in context. There is clearly no need to hop on a bus and abandon Nottingham - quite the reverse, in fact. The numbers about the city need to make that abundantly clear.